What Is Arbitrage Trading? - Bitcoinik

[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] who wanna arbitrage trading to korea?

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[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] I'm looking for someone want to make arbitrage trading to korea.

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Given that Korea always trades BTC at about 40% more than the rest of the world, why is there not a huge queue of Koreans around here trying to buy BTC from abroad for arbitrage? /r/Bitcoin

Given that Korea always trades BTC at about 40% more than the rest of the world, why is there not a huge queue of Koreans around here trying to buy BTC from abroad for arbitrage? /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

The world economy is on the verge of crisis again, cryptocurrencies will be strong

Vulnerability refers to the property that things are vulnerable to damage when faced with fluctuations.
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb
In the face of economic fluctuations, it is disadvantageous to hold such a negative view. Every capital market has its own life cycle, which inevitably goes through a process from growth, to peak, and then to recession. Now is no exception. As we emerge from the longest bull market in history, we suddenly find ourselves in a highly vulnerable global economy facing the panicked and perplexed planet unprepared. However, the turmoil has just begun.
Newton's first law, also known as "the law of inertia", means that any object must maintain a constant linear motion or standstill until an external force forces it to change its state of motion. Although this analogy does not perfectly correspond to the capital market (because the market is always changing and developing in different directions), at least one thing is certain that under the action of the market mechanism, the market cycle always appears Trend from peak to valley.
The music box winds up, and the performance of the song sounds, and then it stops after a while. When this happens, the market structure collapses, eventually leading to huge chaos, and then falling into silence. Once external forces force the entire economy into trouble, people will realize the long-standing hidden structural defects in the economy.
Now, the world economy is on the verge of crisis again. All human beings have to face a sudden outbreak of a global epidemic and the resulting shocks in supply and demand in the market. The economies of some countries have stalled. Ironically, the effects of inertia may be prevalent in market fluctuations.
While witnessing the development of the global economy, we still find two simultaneous macro trends:
--1-- USD strong We believe that the strong US dollar is driven by three factors: Investors turn to safe assets: Despite the Fed ’s interest rate cuts and monetary stimulus policies, the market ’s increasing demand for the US dollar has pushed up the US dollar index and hit a new high in 18 years.
US Dollar Financing Issues: Cross-currency basis swaps measure that investors are more inclined to hold the US dollar than the euro or the yen.
On March 17, the euro-dollar basis swap swap premium expanded from -60 basis points to -120 basis points, the highest level since 2011. As of press time, the Euro-US dollar basis swap has rapidly dropped to about -27 basis points, while the US dollar-Japanese yen basis swap has expanded to -70 basis points. Negative basis points indicate greater pressure on the dollar and higher hedging costs for European and Japanese investors.
The reality is that U.S. banks, which are the main source of funding for the U.S. dollar, are storing large amounts of cash instead of actively issuing short-term U.S. dollar loans to foreign banks. Due to recent pressure from the balance sheet, more and more U.S. banks are beginning to reduce credit lines to retain cash. In addition, many foreign banks that lack direct access to the US dollar market can only rely on central bank liquidity swaps for financing. This week, the Fed and several other central banks opened new liquidity swap tools, providing USD 30 billion to USD 60 billion of liquidity, respectively, to ease pressure on USD financing.
Central banks in emerging market countries are taking urgent steps and lowering their benchmark interest rates: Emerging market investors are very worried about the stability of their currencies and are pouring into the dollar market. According to Bloomberg, all major emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar on January 20, just as the new crown virus began to spread in Asia.
——2—— Treasury liquidity tightening Abnormally performing credit markets: In general, price fluctuations will prompt investors to switch from risky assets (such as stocks) to safe-haven assets (such as bonds). This was indeed the case when the new coronavirus was causing panic. However, the current despair of liquidity (especially cash) by market investors has led to a large-scale sell-off in the global bond market, falling bond prices and rising interest rates.
Repurchase market: The Federal Reserve's rescue measures have not brought the expected results. In the past week, the Federal Reserve announced three repurchases and other measures to release liquidity, hoping to ease the current state of the US Treasury market and reduce the inventory of primary dealers. However, market demand for government bonds remains sluggish.
Let's turn our eyes from the home of the macro economy to the cryptocurrency market. Although they are not necessarily related, we find that the two are closely related.
In the face of volatility, it is particularly important to develop a price action strategy. The CBOE-VIX index, an indicator that predicts the trend of the S & P 500 in the next 30 days, has surged to its highest level since the last global financial crisis. At the same time, we also saw that the 90-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options rose to 6.8% (annualized 130%), which is about 5.9% (annualized 113%) this weekend. As the "Black Thursday" on March 12th, BTC was down 40% and ETH was down 50%, some leveraged positions were forced to close. According to reports, BitMEX alone closed USD 700 million worth of long and short positions. At the same time, the sell-off of ETH dropped the value of the DeFi ecosystem by 40%. The total amount of collateral liquidation of Compound, dYdX and Maker and other lending platforms reached US $ 10 million. But in this turbulent market, not all assets perform so badly.
Although the price of BTC, like the stock market at the beginning, plummeted, falling by 60% from the high price in mid-February, it rebounded by about 50% from the price low on March 12. Over the past period, we have found a large amount of funds flowing from altcoins to BTC. With the spot premium (the spot price is higher than the futures price), the demand for bitcoin lending has increased. The effective fund interest rate also gradually returned to normal as the curve was inverted. In contrast, when futures are at a premium (the futures price is higher than the spot price), there is almost no demand for BTC's lending transactions. At present, the BTC funding rate on various lending platforms has increased from 3-5% to 8%, and the ETH funding rate has increased from 2-4% to 6%.
——3—— Floating profit stablecoin market Since February 14, the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a large-scale sell-off, with a market value of $ 45 billion evaporated. At the same time, the market value of USDT has risen to nearly $ 5 billion. USDT has emerged from this market volatility and has become a safe-haven asset. This week, the premium rate of USDT prices in China and South Korea is as high as 7%, which is caused by the demand of payment service providers and arbitrage traders. The current over-the-counter USDT supply exceeds supply. At the same time, the market value of USDC climbed to US $ 630 million, a record high. The market value of BUSD is exceeding the US $ 150 million mark, mainly due to the surge in demand for Binance's borrowing and margin trading.
——4—— Near-term outlook We pay close attention to the changing macroeconomic trends and the successive monetary and fiscal policies implemented by governments around the world. Although we cannot predict the specific trend of the market, we still believe that cryptocurrency as an asset class will be strong. In a nutshell, we think:
● Due to the recent sell-off in the market, the value of positions has shrunk sharply, making the distribution of positions in the market clearer.
● With the exit of market makers, the spread between major exchanges has brought more market arbitrage opportunities for retail traders. In particular, the derivatives market (futures and perpetual swaps) has seen a significant discount compared to the spot market, which has pushed up BTC's lending rate.
● By hedging the spot and long futures, market participants can carry out arbitrage trading, which is completely contrary to the market situation we saw last year (the futures price is significantly higher than the spot).
● Over the past six months, trading activities in the options market have grown rapidly. We expect that trading activities in the options market will continue to grow.
● At present, on our platform, institutional clients such as hedge funds, arbitrage traders, crypto companies, etc. have all bought a lot of BTC and USDT.
Market volatility is part of investment. We believe that after a period of time, the economy will re-enter the upward trajectory, please let us work together for it.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

Survivors of market disasters: In this disaster, some people actually made money

There is no need to repeat the tragic market. Various historical figures are present, and they all reveal a signal: this disaster is like an earthquake with no warning signs. The victims are everywhere, and the survival is a fluke.
But in this disaster, there are still people who make money.
If you still have the impression, on August 23 of last year, there was a problem with Amazon AWS 'server in Japan, which caused the products using the region's services to be affected to varying degrees, including the cryptocurrency trading platform. After discovering a problem with Binance using AWS, the user's deposit and withdrawal were suspended, but the trading platform using the Binance Quotation API failed to take timely measures, resulting in loopholes in market makers' strategies.
That day, while Bitcoin was still steadily maintained at 10,000 USD, some users bought Bitcoin at a unit price of 0.32 USD, and when there was almost no fluctuation in the market, they used the mistake of the server to add western food for the night. A bottle of champagne.
In this disaster after 5 months, some people still use the environment to find a way to survive.
Ethereum 0 dollar purchase?
A $ 0 purchase of Ethereum happened on March 13. The market plummeted, many mortgagors' positions were exploded, and ETH fell from $ 180 to less than $ 100 without resistance. The decentralized Defi market that depends on the value of ETH is naturally not immune, such as the MakerDAO platform. MakerDAO's borrowing logic is that users over-collateralize ETH to lend USD stablecoin DAI, but when the value of ETH fell rapidly, a large number of loans fell below the threshold and the system had to be liquidated. In other words, the user's loan was not repaid. Mortgage of ETH is also not available.
So MakerDAO has a bad debt, the amount exceeds USD 4 million. In order to repay this bad debt, MakerDAO chooses to auction the collateral, that is, ETH, BAT, etc., and uses the stable currency DAI to bid. They need to use the auction proceeds to obtain repay loan.
Under normal circumstances, such auctions are not too accidental. The feeding system reports the current price of ETH, and the bidders will probably trade at a price slightly lower than the market price.
However, the background of this auction is the market's plunge. The transaction caused investors to intensive operations, which blocked the Ethereum network. It takes far more than usual gas fees to allow the miners to confirm the transfer as soon as possible.
According to the browser, on the morning of the 13th, if only 44 gwei is used, the transfer confirmation time on the Ethereum network will take 72958 seconds, which is 20 hours.
The MakerDAO debt auction on the Ethereum network has also been affected. The blockage of the network has prevented bidders with low gas costs from bidding in time, which caused participants to bid 0 DAI / ETH to drop the hammer.
It can also be seen from the transaction records that the auction of 0 DAI was indeed successful. These lucky bidders only paid a transfer fee of US $ 1 and transferred 0 amount to obtain an ETH worth US $ 122 at the time.
These people are undoubtedly fortunate. The external environment helped them to become the only game participants. The exchange of $ 1 for $ 120 and a profit of 11900% was much higher than the odds of players who risked bottom-swinging in fluctuations.
However, from another perspective, MakerDAO's auction is to use the DAI obtained from the auction to pay off debts. However, due to network congestion, this situation has caused several free gifts, and MakerDAO's debt repayment is even worse.
Pick up goods by luck
If it is said that MakerDAO launches the auction, it is a helpless action of the team under extreme conditions. Bidders still need a bit of technical barriers to participate, but there is nothing to worry about, and there is almost no difficulty and cost.
On the evening of March 12, investors discovered that the LINK / USDT trading pair of the Binance trading platform experienced a short-term flash collapse and once fell to the bottom 0.0001 USD. What's going on?
Twitter netizens then asked Zhao Changpeng about the matter, and the latter's response was a shock. It turned out that someone had already launched the LINK trading pair as early as Binance, that is, on January 16 last year, a low was hung within 8 seconds after the real-time trading was opened. Price list, but it has not been closed because no fool will sell it at this price.
Unexpectedly, more than a year later, this pending order was sold "strangely". "At that time we had no price range restrictions. We will not cancel user orders." Zhao Changpeng said that the platform will not deny this order because the operation is completely reasonable.
It will not be rolled back for various reasons. In other words, even if LINK has experienced a large decline recently, at the current price of 2.3 US dollars, the profit of this transaction will exceed 2 million US dollars. US dollars, then he instantly won nearly 5 million US dollars.
The cost of 100 dollars, the income of 2.4 million dollars, a real profit.
In fact, similar examples of this kind of luck are not rare in the crypto industry. Except for Binance and the previous examples, BitMex and OKEx have also experienced similar situations, and more than once.
For example, on December 6, 2017, Binance's XRP / BTC trading pair experienced a breakdown of the list. In a very short period of time, the XRP price was oversold to 0.0000002 BTC, which is basically negligible. On January 29, 2018, the price of the ADA contract on BitMEX also fell to 0.00000005 US dollars, which was also nearly 0; another trading platform, OKEx, also saw a large amount of 0.002 USD on January 14, 2018. Case, according to the official statement at that time, "a certain trader" quickly sold a large amount of ETH through market orders within 12 minutes. Interestingly, at the time, some people analyzed that "a certain trader" was actually an official market-making robot, and "a large amount" of 100 million Ethereum was eventually sold for 20 dollars.
However, for ordinary people, if you want to encounter this kind of opportunity for leak detection, unless you are bored and place an order in advance, such a price is fleeting, and you ca n’t seize the opportunity simply by hand speed. In fact, at present, many trading platforms have actually adopted corresponding price amplitude filters, which specify the maximum / minimum price range of pending order prices. Oolong trading is very rare. Even if luck hits and catches up, it is very likely that the platform will intervene and the transaction will be rolled back. This situation has not happened before.
Only this time, the trader who had placed an order on Binance for more than a year, even if he successfully leaked and successfully withdrew the coin, it can only be said that he hit the Grand Canal.
Safe moving of bricks
Buying a certain kind of token on a crypto trading platform, and then selling the token to another trading platform, earning the price difference is a moving brick in the crypto circle. Moving bricks has been an arbitrage behavior since the birth of the transaction. It belongs to a very old business. Arthur, the founder of BitMex, who now operates a trading platform, and Xu Mingxing of OKEx, were once members of the army of moving bricks. . This kind of brick moving was the most prosperous at the end of 2017. At that time, trading platforms such as Bithumb in South Korea also called the "Kimchi premium" due to the price difference between other platforms. Moving bricks is a kind of risk-free arbitrage. Players use energy to gain profits, although the single profit is not much. However, with the maturity of trading robots and quantitative trading teams, the spread of tokens between multiple regions or platforms is often wiped out in a matter of seconds. Therefore, the profit margin of manually moving bricks is now very small.
Of course, it is not to say that there is no opportunity. Such an opportunity to make money is indeed hidden under the volatile market.
"Buy at a low price and sell at a high price, this is simply the most secure way to make money in a plunging market!" Investors are excited about cryptography. Starting at 6:30 pm on March 12, cryptocurrencies have experienced sharp fluctuations, while Binance and Huobi When the bitcoin spread between the three trading platforms and OKEx was the largest, it even reached more than 700 US dollars. The discerning player quickly discovered the opportunity, "For half an hour, I made more than 10,000 with a principal of 20,000 yuan. Such an opportunity is usually not available."
Buy and sell orders executed by the above investors at almost the same time, with a spread of nearly $ 450
When it comes to moving bricks, time is money. It is definitely too late to shuttle between multiple trading platforms. Many investors have now transferred the "battlefield" to the platform that focuses on aggregated trading. "The aggregated trading platform integrates the depth of multiple platforms. As long as there is a price difference between supported platforms, users only use One account can be bought and sold on multiple platforms, and it can be operated in a few seconds. "Wu Ling, who seized the opportunity from the extreme market in these two days, made nearly 50,000 by moving bricks in just a few hours. Yuan, the principal is no more than tens of thousands of yuan.
It is understood that there are already multiple platforms targeting the aggregate trading business on the market, and the opportunity to move bricks does not often appear, unless similar to the extreme market appearing in the past few days, or some unique tokens, there may be soaring and plunging. Opportunities, as a whole, are not met a few times a year, and they are fleeting.
However, whether it is MakerDAO auctions, ultra-low-priced pending order transactions, or arbitrage moving bricks under the new situation, these opportunities to make money are actually small probability and cannot be used as conventional investment methods.
These seemingly easy profits are in the end a few people. Many people are trapped in extreme quotes in stuns. Most investors have no assets left on the trading platform overnight.
Maybe this also makes many investors lose confidence in the industry, but in fact, in the face of such a market, after finishing our mood, we are more learning from changes.
Learn the reasons for this disaster, learn the logic of the main control panel, learn what signals were ignored before the disaster, and prepare for the next time. At the same time, we can also see the development of the industry. For example, when all centralized trading platforms are down, DEX can still be implemented despite various problems.
I hope that everyone still has confidence in the blockchain and cryptocurrency industries. Finally, I would like to remind everyone that the recent market changes are unpredictable. Please pay attention to risks and exercise caution.
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After the Bitcoin crash: do others fear me for greed?

At 6:30 pm on March 12, Bitcoin dropped from $ 7211 to $ 5555.55. The bitcoin price dived again this morning, slumping nearly $ 2,000 again in half an hour, the lowest fell to $ 3,782.13, a drop of more than 40% in 24 hours. According to the data of the contract emperor, only Huobi, OKEx, Binance, and BitMEX exchanges had a daily short position of 3.133 billion US dollars, which reached the highest in a single day in history. The number of liquidated positions exceeded 110,000, which was also the highest in a single day.
Also on March 12, the S & P index fell 260.74 points, triggering the fusing mechanism for the second time this week. The Dow hit its largest decline in history, at 2352.6 points. The Nasdaq fell 750.25 points to 7201.8 points. This is the third time in the history of US stocks. This fuse has been 33 years since the first fuse, but only 4 days have passed since the last fuse. Buffett shouted, "I only lived this way in 89 years." It is reported that Buffett lost $ 6.8 billion last night.
According to incomplete statistics, with the exception of the United States, the stock markets of 11 countries including Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, and Pakistan plummeted. The five largest US technology companies, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, had a cumulative market value of $ 416.63 billion. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that the top 15 richest people in the world lost a total of $ 46.4 billion.
Market panic or pullback demand? Regarding the meltdown of U.S. stocks this week, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the spread of the epidemic is not the main reason. It is more a decade of bull market for U.S. stocks. Some factors driving the rise of U.S. stocks are quietly changing, such as the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate There is not much space. Regarding this crazy drop in Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital told InfoQ that there are two main reasons for this drop in Bitcoin: on the one hand, the bearish demand caused by the expected global economic downturn, and on the other hand, Bitcoin Callback requirements themselves.
As we all know, Bitcoin will be halved in the second half of the year, but the trading market pays attention to speculation expectations. This round of rise has essentially halved the market. After hitting a high of 10500, Bitcoin is facing a callback demand. Of course, this round of downtrends is so rapid and there are only a handful of recurrences in the history of Bitcoin, which are inextricably linked to the decline in global stock markets, both of which are the result of expectations of a bearish global economy.
However, Johnson Xu, chief analyst of TokenInsight, told InfoQ that the Bitcoin dip was mainly due to market panic, because some market participants bought bitcoins by buying mining machines, borrowing, etc., and expected to reduce their expectations by half. A linkage effect caused by everyone being too optimistic about the market.
The market is overhyped because Bitcoin is halved, and some market participants are afraid to miss the opportunity to enter the market irrationally. The current market slump is driven by strong irrational behavior, which translates into a rapid downside response and quickly depletes market buyers' liquidity (flattening down). When the overall financial market panic or other unexpected events are caused by the New Crown virus and the global economic slowdown, market participants often seek to withdraw assets such as stocks and bitcoins and convert these assets into cash (cash is king). So has the recent gold sell-off.
When the market panics, people ask for cash in the beginning instead of investing in safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, because gold is considered a high-quality asset, investors usually start with liquidity crunch and market panic. Cash in on good assets (because inferior assets are more difficult to sell in panic times). The Bitcoin crash this time has a certain connection with the decline in global stock markets, because the entire financial market is a globalized market, and there is more or less linkage between each asset.
In addition, Forbes speculated that it may be because PlusToken scammers transferred bitcoins worth more than 100 million US dollars to the mixer, and then sold bitcoins, resulting in rising market supply.

Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy? In this case, should investors still expect "halving the market"? Johnson Xu believes that there is no such thing as a "half quotation", and most market participants are too optimistic about the halving of Bitcoin. Price fluctuations are not necessarily caused by halving, but may be caused by the sum of other factors. When everyone is saying that they are optimistic about the market, the existence of risk is ignored in the subconscious. At this time, the risk will be actually reflected, and the upside will gradually shrink. Bitcoin halving was written into the code, and it was not an accident. Bitcoin should be halved in a rational way. It is worth looking forward to, but not overly interpreting and speculation.
However, Tianqi Capital believes that this plunge is a callback period for bitcoin's halving of the market, and each round of sharp decline also indicates the opportunity of the market outlook: cheap chips will be hoarded, waiting for the next wave of hype and explosion. Therefore, Tianqi Capital still believes that the market outlook of Bitcoin is worth looking forward to, provided that it is not frightened by the current fierce washing of the chips, after all, when the bear market is the worst, it is also when gold is everywhere.
Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital stated that it should judge according to the current trend.
In this round of market, Apocalypse Capital initially chose to follow the downward trend of May 18, and Bitcoin has gradually dropped from a high of 10,000 to 3150 points, so the big support level predicted by this round happens to be 3700 today. Near the point. Data monitoring shows that some funds are involved in this price range. But whether it can hold on to this support remains to be tested. If the 3700 support cannot be maintained, it is very likely that it will hit the US $ 2000 level. Tianqi Capital believes that this is the market's last line of defense. Long-term investment is recommended to buy some relatively stable targets, such as BTC, ETH, etc. The bear market will eliminate many currencies, but if it survives, it will shine in the next round.
Johnson Xu believes that the plunge is also a test to promote the healthy development of the industry. Extreme market is a test for the entire industry, especially for infrastructure, risk management, etc., so it is still optimistic and supports the development of the industry for a long time.
For current investors, Johnson Xu offers the following suggestions:
  1. Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy.
  2. Global financial markets have also undergone major changes. From the data point of view, I don't think Bitcoin has the attributes of a safe-haven asset, but this market can test whether Bitcoin has a certain risk-avoidance capability. This is a global world. We need to analyze various markets, not just the digital asset market.
  3. In the long run, we are still optimistic about the digital asset industry.
Does Bitcoin have a fusing mechanism? On March 9, after the U.S. stock market crash triggered the fusing mechanism, the market began a discussion of "whether Bitcoin should set up a fusing mechanism". But at present, most people are not optimistic about the Bitcoin fusing mechanism. OKEx CEO Jay Hao said that the fusing mechanism is difficult to implement in the digital currency market. In the face of a highly volatile market, setting the fuse point is a difficult problem. At the same time, for a 7 * 24h market, when a certain exchange breaks down, the price difference between the digital currencies between the platforms will increase, leading to arbitrage, and the fuse mechanism will eventually become a decoration.
Du Wan, the co-founder of Contract Emperor, also said that it is unrealistic to use a fuse mechanism in the currency circle. The fusing mechanism first violates the original intention of the decentralization of the blockchain, and at the same time, it will touch the interests of the top of the currency circle ecological chain. For example, large trading teams can no longer use pins to obtain large profits. When the market is panic, exchanges with a fuse mechanism may lose traffic to exchanges without a fuse mechanism because of the run effect of traders.
It can be seen that the current risk aversion measures in the traditional stock market are difficult to transfer to the fickle currency market in a short time, and the regulation of this market still has a long way to go. Investors should still be cautious when investing.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

Question on premium pricing.

I was reading this article
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-to-buy-bitcoin/
It says
Although Bitcoin is homogenous (the same everywhere in the world), its price varies across countries and even exchanges within the same country, giving rise to arbitrage opportunities. At one point in 2017, the Bitcoin price in South Korea was trading at a 35% premium and, in India, a 20% to 25% premium. The demand and supply conditions create aberrations in its price.
My question, dies the above statement means that if i buy bitcoin in USD and sell them at korea or indian exchange, i will make 20-25% profit. If so, why aren’t people doing that already to close the supply /demand gap ?
submitted by kolorful to BitcoinBeginners [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
📷
https://preview.redd.it/ithso6k9w7531.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e87d53120d9cc645b080c070afc5f9b402d56bf3
TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
Guide:
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary:
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
Content
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
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2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.

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Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.

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Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.

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The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.

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Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.

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Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.

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In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.

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BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.

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BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.

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4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed

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4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.

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5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.

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From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
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Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Note:
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
Notions:
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.

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submitted by Token_Roll to u/Token_Roll [link] [comments]

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WHAT IS BITCOIN MEANING …………
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Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that enables instant payments to anyone, anywhere in the world. Bitcoin uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central authority: transaction management and money issuance are carried out collectively by the network.
The original Bitcoin software by Satoshi Nakamoto was released under the MIT license. Most client software, derived or "from scratch", also use open source licensing.
Bitcoin is the first successful implementation of a distributed crypto-currency, described in part in 1998 by Wei Dai on the cypherpunks mailing list. Building upon the notion that money is any object, or any sort of record, accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts in a given country or socio-economic context, Bitcoin is designed around the idea of using cryptography to control the creation and transfer of money, rather than relying on central authorities.
Bitcoins have all the desirable properties of a money-like good. They are portable, durable, divisible, recognizable, fungible, scarce and difficult to counterfeit.
Why?
Bitcoin is P2P electronic cash that is valuable over legacy systems because of the monetary autonomy it brings to its users. Bitcoin seeks to address the root problem with conventional currency: all the trust that's required to make it work -- Not that justified trust is a bad thing, but trust makes systems brittle, opaque, and costly to operate. Trust failures result in systemic collapses, trust curation creates inequality and monopoly lock-in, and naturally arising trust choke-points can be abused to deny access to due process. Through the use of cryptographic proof, decentralized networks and open source software Bitcoin minimizes and replaces these trust costs.
Bitcoin Transactions are:
Permissionless and borderless. The software can be installed by anybody worldwide.
Do not require any ID to use. Making it suitable for the unbanked, the privacy-conscious, computers or people in areas with underdeveloped financial infrastructure.
Are censorship-resistant. Nobody is able to block or freeze a transaction of any amount.
Irreversible once settled, like cash. (but consumer protection is still possible.)
Fast. Transactions are broadcasted in seconds and can become irreversible within an hour.
Online and available 24 hours a day, 365 days per year.
Bitcoin can also be a store of value, some have said it is a "swiss bank account in your pocket".
Stored Bitcoins:
Cannot be printed or debased. Only 21 million bitcoins will ever exist.
Have no storage costs. They take up no physical space regardless of amount.
Are easy to protect and hide. Can be stored encrypted on a hard disk or paper backup.
Are in your direct possession with no counterparty risk. If you keep the private key of a bitcoin secret and the transaction has enough confirmations, then nobody can take them from you no matter for what reason, no matter how good the excuse, no matter what.
If you still can’t figure out what the heck a bitcoin is, this simple explanation will help you! …
📷
We’re sitting on a park bench. It’s a great day. I have one apple with me, I give it to you.
You now have one apple and I have zero. That was simple, right?
Let’s look closely at what happened:
My apple was physically put into your hand. You know it happened. I was there, you were there – you touched it.
We didn’t need a third person there to help us make the transfer. We didn’t need to pull in Uncle Tommy (who’s a famous judge) to sit with us on the bench and confirm that the apple went from me to you.
The apple’s yours! I can’t give you another apple because I don’t have any left. I can’t control it anymore. The apple left my possession completely. You have full control over that apple now. You can give it to your friend if you want, and then that friend can give it to his friend, and so on.
So that’s what an in-person exchange looks like. I guess it’s really the same, whether I’m giving you a banana, a book, a quarter, or a dollar bill …But I’m getting ahead of myself.

📷
What if we gave this ledger to everybody? Instead of the ledger living on a Blizzard computer, it’ll live in everybody’s computers. All the transactions that have ever happened, from all time, in digital apples, will be recorded in it.You can’t cheat it. I can’t send you digital apples I don’t have, because then it wouldn’t sync up with everybody else in the system. It’d be a tough system to beat. Especially if it got really big.
Plus, it’s not controlled by one person, so I know there’s no one that can just decide to give himself more digital apples. The rules of the system were already defined at the beginning.
And the code and rules are open source – kinda like the software used in your mom’s Android phone. Or kinda like Wikipedia. It’s there for smart people to maintain, secure, improve, and check.
You could participate in this network too – updating the ledger and making sure it all checks out. For the trouble, you could get like 25 digital apples as a reward. In fact, that’s the only way to create more digital apples in the system.
I simplified quite a bit … But that system I explained exists. It’s called the Bitcoin protocol. And those digital apples are the bitcoins within the system. Fancy! So, did you see what happened?
What does the public ledger enable?
1) It’s open source, remember? The total number of apples was defined in the public ledger at the beginning. I know the exact amount that exists. Within the system, I know they are limited (scarce).
2) When I make an exchange I now know that digital apple certifiably left my possession and is now completely yours. I used to not be able to say that about digital things. It will be updated and verified by the public ledger.
3) Because it’s a public ledger, I didn’t need Uncle Tommy (third-party) to make sure I didn’t cheat, or make extra copies for myself, or send apples twice, or thrice…
Within the system, the exchange of a digital apple is now just like the exchange of a physical one. It’s now as good as seeing a physical apple leave my hand and drop into your pocket. Just like on the park bench, the exchange involved two people only. You and me , we didn’t need Uncle Tommy there to make it valid.
In other words, it behaves like a physical object.
But you know what’s cool? It’s still digital.
We can now deal with 1,000 apples, or 1 million apples, or even .0000001 apples. I can send it with a click of a button, and I can still drop it in your digital pocket if I was in Nicaragua and you were all the way in New York.
I can even make other digital things ride on top of these digital apples! It’s digital after all. Maybe I can attach some text on it – a digital note. Or maybe I can attach more important things; like say a contract, or a stock certificate, or an ID card …
So this is great! How should we treat or value these “digital apples”? They’re quite useful aren’t they?
Well, a lot of people are arguing over it now. There’s debate between this and that economic school, between politicians, between programmers. Don’t listen to all of them though. Some people are smart; some are misinformed. Some say the system is worth a lot; some say it’s actually worth zero. Some guy actually put a hard number on it: $1,300 per apple. Some say it’s digital gold; some say it’s a currency. Others say they’re just like tulips. Some people say it’ll change the world; some say it’s just a fad.
I have my own opinion about it, but that’s a story for another time.
Hey, you now know more about Bitcoin than most.
FX TRADING OFFICE ADDRESS
Company Registered in South Korea (99, Centum dong-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan, South Korea)
WHY FX TRADING CREATED?
\They want to open an exchange in all around the World after 3 years with* 5 Million members.\*
14:42
ABOUT THE COMPANY
FXTRADING CORPORATION is a global company with many investors and entrepreneurs in the World. Already developed by a team of professionals currently in the field of FX and CRYPTOTRADING and they created the software. It also helps many investors make money from mining companies in various places around the world with the following coins. Bitcoin, Etherium, Bitcoin in cash, Litecoin, etc. Even if you do not have experience in this market, it is an opportunity to earn profits automatically and gain a lot of growth.
HOW ITS WORKS
Our groundbreaking platform uses an automated arbitrage system that yields profits for customers based on real-time movements in the cryptocurrency market. Our proprietary algorithm buys bitcoin when it is cheaper, and sells when it is more expensive. FX-TRADING customers benefit by assuming the profit, which is deposited directly into their online account.
WHEN IT WAS LAUNCHED
fficial Launch on August 10th, 2018 in Busan – South Korea. Around 896.000 peoples already joined, and more than 183 countries opened.
IF U WANT TO BECOME AN INVESTOR
Great! for you as an investor is very simple Chose one of the Packages available: bot 100$
bot300$ bot500$
bot1000$ bot3000$ botbot5000$ bot10000$ bot20000$ bot30000$ bot40000$ bot50000$ The company will pay you up to 2.5% from what you invested They trade during the day and when comes midnight in South Korea, they pay whatever was that day’s profits Some days are 1.45% or 2.2% or 1.1% The company can’t guarantee how much it will pay, as Trading is not guaranteed The company pays Monday to Friday for 200 working days The only way to invest is using Bitcoin You can withdraw minimum of 50$ Monday to Friday, and it will be paid only in Bitcoin 24h later, not counting weekends, so if you withdraw on a Friday, you will get paid on Monday.
IF U WANT TO BE AN NETWORKER
Great! being a networker means you can get more bonuses • Daily Payment • Binary • Residual • Career Plan 1 - The daily Payment is up to 2.5% per day Monday to Friday, until you reach 400% 2- Binary is 10% of what people invest but you first need to qualify for it, is very simple, just register one direct person to your left and one to your right! after these 2, the next person that you register or that comes from those who you already registered, you will get the binary bonus from them, we are always talking about the smaller side. 3- Residual, this bonus is linked to the career plan, you need to qualify per stars, each star means you get 2% of each level from your network. So if you are star 3 for example, means you will receive 2% from 3 level from your network, everyday when they receive their daily payment, you get 2% of what they make. 4- Career Plan, Dollars of investment to became ◊1 Dollar = 1 Point Star 1 you need 1.000 points Star 2 you need 4.000 points Star 3 you need 20.000 points Star 4 you need 50.000 points Star 5 you need 200.000 points Star 6 you need 500.000 points Star 7 you need 1.500.000 points Star 8 you need 3.000.000 points Star 9 you need 5.000.000 points Star 10 you need 10.000.000 points Black Star you need 50.000.000 points All this point needs to be on the smaller leg.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTOR AND NETWORKER
First let me tell you about being an Investor For you as an investor is very simple Choose one of the Packages available: 100$ 300$ 500% 1000$ 3000$ 5000$ 10000$ 20000$ 30000$ 40000$ 50000$ The company will pay you up to 2.5% from what you invested They trade during the day and when comes midnight in South Korea, they pay whatever was that day’s profits Some days are 1.45% or 2.2% or 1.1% The company can’t guarantee how much it will pay, as Trading is not guaranteed The company pays Monday to Friday for 200 working days The only way to invest is using Bitcoin You can withdraw minimum of 50$ Monday to Friday, and it will be paid only in Bitcoin 24h later, not counting weekends, so if you withdraw on a Friday, you will get paid on Monday.
Now as a networker you can get more bonuses • Daily Payment • Binary • Residual • Career Plan 1 - The daily Payment is up to 2.5% per day Monday to Friday, until you reach 400% 2- Binary is 10% of what people invest but you first need to qualify for it, is very simple, just register one direct person to your left and one to your right! after these 2, the next person that you register or that comes from those who you already registered, you will get the binary bonus from them, we are always talking about the smaller side. 3- Residual, this bonus is linked to the career plan, you need to qualify per stars, each star means you get 2% of each level from your network. So if you are star 3 for example, means you will receive 2% from 3 level from your network, everyday when they receive their daily payment, you get 2% of what they make. 4- Career Plan, Dollars of investment to became ◊1 Dollar = 1 Point Star 1 you need 1.000 points Star 2 you need 4.000 points Star 3 you need 20.000 points Star 4 you need 50.000 points Star 5 you need 200.000 points Star 6 you need 500.000 points Star 7 you need 1.500.000 points Star 8 you need 3.000.000 points Star 9 you need 5.000.000 points Star 10 you need 10.000.000 points Black Star you need 50.000.000 points All this point needs to be on the smaller leg.
MOST IMPORTANTLY IS THAT
The difference Between an investor and a networker is: Investor Will only receive the daily payment of up to 2.5% Networker Can get more bonuses such as: - Daily Payment of up to 2.5% - Indication of 6% - Binary of 10% - Residual Bonus - Career Bonus
SOME INFO THAT YOU HAVE TO KNOW ABOUT GET SUPPORT FROM FXTRADING
ACTIVATION:
MY PLAN DOES NOT ACTIVATE AFTER WIRING FUNDS ANSWER IS …
.- After a payment request is created, you have 24 hours to wire funds to a designated wallet. Based on the fluctuation of Bitcoin prices, posted amount of Bitcoin may be larger or smaller. Price updates commence every 30 minutes. - The system only validates your request to transfer when you pay the designated amount or more. If less bitcoin were submitted, the transfer request would be voided automatically…
HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO ACTIVATE MY PLAN ANSWER IS ....
- The time until the activation varies depending on processing speed of network or blockchain. Some exchange and wallet may take more time to transfer funds. However, the process generally does not exceed 6 hours. Therefore, if your plan does not activate after 6 hours, please contact the support centre.
EARNINGS:
WHICH DAYS OF A WEEK I RECEIVE MY EARNINGS ?
- Daily earnings are processed and posted at midnight, Monday through Friday, Korean Standard Time.
MY PLAN WAS ACTIVATED BUT NOT YET REICIEVE EARNINGS?
- It takes 24 hours until your investments are processed through our system. You will be listed as an FXTRADING dividend recipient after 24 hours.
I UPGRADED MY PLAN BUT RECEIVED EARNINGS FOR THE PREVIOUS PLAN?
- The same rules apply for plan upgrades with the purchase of a new plan. Your upgrades will be in force after 24 hours. Until that point, you will receive the earnings on the previous plan.
WITHDRAWAL:
WHICH DAYS OF A WEEK I CAN WITHDRAW MY FUNDS?
- You can withdraw your funds Monday through Friday.
What is the minimum amount that I can withdraw?
- The minimum withdrawal amount is currently $50. There is no limit on the maximum amount you can withdraw.
How long does it take to process my remittance request?
- Please allow 1 to 3 business days to process your withdrawal requests.
I received payment confirmation o- It may take up to 24 hours after confirmation for requests to be processed in blockchain and posted on your wallet.
Hash values I received by e-mail are not recognized by Blockchain.
- It generally takes 24 hours for blockchain to recognize hash values. You can review the progress by the link provided in the e-mail message until then.
Binary
What should I do to get a binary bonus?
- It generally takes 24 hours for blockchain to recognize hash values. You can review the progress by the link provided in the e-mail message until then.
I made one referral member, but I did not receive a credit.
- Please confirm if the new referral member is the first one on your left or right. First referral on each side only qualifies you for binary bonus program. They do not create credits and do not count as binary members. - Was your plan active when your referral members in lower tier activate their plans? Credits are provided only if your plan was active when lower tier members activate their plans. - Are your lower tier referral members’ accounts leadership accounts? Leadership accounts do not own earnings and do not get payments. Therefore, leadership members do not create binary credit.
Amounts of my credit received seems not correct.
- Created credits are 10% of the price of plans purchased. If a member in your network upgrades a plan, the member only creates credits on the difference between two plans, not on the entire amount of the plan the member bought. For instance, if a member upgrades to $500 plan from $300 plan, you would receive 10% of the difference between the two plans. The difference is $200 in this example so that you will get 20 credits in total.
I received bonus less than created credits.
- There is a rule for the binary program; no member shall receive binary bonus larger than the plan they are on. For instance, if you are using $100 plan, but have created 150 credits through the binary network, you will only receive $100 bonus, forfeiting the remaining $50. - You also need to be careful about 400% earning rule. You can never receive an amount four times more than the plan you are on. For example, if you are using $100 plan, have received $350 as earnings so far and you have 100 credits outstanding for a binary bonus, only $50 that matches your 400% ceiling will be paid to you as a binary bonus.
Referral Bonus I did not receive my referral bonus while my referral member was activatated
- To receive a referral bonus, your plan must be active when your referral’s plan comes activated. To ensure receipt of your bonus, please wait until your plan gets activated before providing referral codes. - Referral Bonus is subject to 400% earning rule. Bonus from referrals will be paid up until their earnings reach 400% of their plan price. Bonus ceases to be remitted when your referral member reaches the earning cap.
An incorrect amount of bonus was paid
The referral bonus is 6% of the plan price purchased. If your referral member upgrades their plan, it creates the bonus on the difference between the two plans, not the entire amount of the plan purchased. For example, if your referral member upgrades to $500 plan from $300 plan, you will receive a 6% bonus on the difference amount between the plans. In this case, you will receive a $12 bonus as the difference is $200. - You also need to be careful about 400% earning rule. You can never receive an amount four times more than the plan you are on. For example, if you are using $100 plan, have received $350 as earnings so far and you have 100 credits outstanding for a referral bonus, only $50 that matches your 400% ceiling will be paid to you as a referral bonus.
submitted by ijronny to u/ijronny [link] [comments]

Korea Arbitrage Question

I have some friends/family in Korea who wants to purchase Bitcoins through me since its cheaper to purchase them in the US. They would be wire transferring funds into my bank account in the US from Korea and then I would purchase BTC or whatever coin they want and then transferring it into their wallets in Korea. There would be proof where the funds come from since they are wired from personal banks (not anonymous) in Korea when I need to file taxes but I'm afraid if there is a limit on how much I can receive from Korea without causing issues to the IRS since it would add up from multiple people requesting to purchase.
submitted by wjw88 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Notes from the Hearing Today

Apologies for typos and grammatical errors; wanted to get this out as soon as possible for those that weren't able to watch the live stream. Cleaned up formatting to make it more readable.

While this isn't a 100% word-for-word transcript, the overtone of the meeting should have been conveyed. SEC and CFTC want protections for consumers, but don't want to outright ban crypto. I was under the impression that both agencies were well-educated, but understaffed. They both want to introduce protections for customers and investors and go after scam artists, but don't want to impose any restrictions or regulations that would be bad for crypto as a whole (both from a security perspective, and a technological innovation perspective). Overall a huge positive.

Crapo
Brown
Clayton
Giancarlo
Crapo
Clayton
Giancarlo
Crapo
Clayton
Giancarlo
Crapo
Brown
Clayton
Brown
Clayton
Brown
Clayton
Brown
Clayton
Brown
Clayton
Brown
Clayton
Sen. Shelby
Clayton
Giancarlo
Sen. Shelby
Clayton
Sen. Shelby
Giancarlo
Clayton
Sen. Shelby
Sen Reed
Clayton
Giancarlo
Sen Reed
Giancarlo
Clayton
Sen Reed
Rounds
Clayton
Rounds
Giancarlo
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Ms. Warren
Perdue
Clayton
Perdue
Giancarlo
Perdue
Clayton
Giancarlo
Donnelly
Giancarlo
Clayton
Donnelly
Giancarlo
Donnelly
Giancarlo
Clayton
Donnelly
Giancarlo
Clayton
Sen. Kennedy
Giancarlo
Sen Kennedy
Giancarlo
Sen Kennedy
Giancarlo
Sen Kennedy
Clayton
Sen Kennedy
Warner
Clayton
Giancarlo
Warner
Clayton
Warner
Giancarlo
Clayton
Cotton
Giancarlo
Clayton
Cotton
Giancarlo
Clayton
Cotton
Clayton
Cotton
Menendez
Giancarlo
Menendez
Giancarlo
Menendez
Giancarlo
Menendez
Clayton
Menendez
Clayton
Moran
Ms. Masto
Clayton
Giancarlo
Ms. Masto
Clayton
Giancarlo
Ms. Masto
Sen Shelby
Clayton
Sen Shelby
Clayton
Giancarlo
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Ms. Warren
Clayton
Crapo
submitted by cembry90 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Why Korean Markets Don't Reflect Japan/China/US Price

Alright...I just wanted to share some information, because as soon as people find out I live in Korea, and can legally have a bank account here, I get flooded with requests from strangers wanting to arbitrage with me.
Even in the Korea subreddit, we have desperate people asking about how to make a Korean bank account. And I have seen some misinformation about how Korea is somehow buying so that China can play the game.
I think a lot of this is misinformation, and I want to share my experience here and explain why I believe so. I would also like to hear other's opinions on what might be going on, or if there is some other thing that might be happening.
Okay.
1.) My experience trading on Bithumb platform shows how hard it is to trade in Korea. I had to send a photo of my passport, and my ARC (Alien Registration Card proving I am working in the Country), and even a copy of my bank book. You can't open a bank account unless you have an ARC in Korea. Bithumb even made me go to the bank and get a stamped copy of the transaction documents when I put in my first won deposit, proving I was a real person who went to through bank. Now, before you can withdraw any money from Bithumb, they personally check the withdraw, and if your name is not on the bank, the withdraw will not go through. Because of all these steps, I don't see how any Chinese or Japanese people could be on Korean exchanges, gaming the system. The growth there is organic, which I will get to a little later.
2.) Arbitrage is difficult here. As an expat, I am only allowed to send 50,000$ USD back from Korea per year. Which means, if I sell even 3BTC in Korea, I will reach that limit. There might be other ways, but then you must ask permission, and I am not sure how Korea would handle a response like "I am gaming the Bitcoin system." Now, a Korean native might be able to if they have a US bank linked to a US exchange. But, I would assume that the US has some of the same restrictions on foreigners opening banks and moving money. Maybe duel citizens can do it though?
3.) Bitcoin's growth in the Korean market is organic. I am involved in several start-up groups with a tech university here, and I know that the excitement for this new future is real. We have brilliant PhD techies coming together and forming new and exciting start-up applications for the technology. The university is funding conferences for next year in order to pull more people and resources together. CEOs of some of the most successful Korean Blockchain companies are coming to the organization meetings, and people are working together to share ideas. Every day, I hear someone talk about Bitcoin. People here see it as the future. Now, I work specifically in the technical field with post-graduates, so this doesn't reflect Korean society as a whole.
4.) Korea will not ban Bitcoin. No way, no how. Korea wants to lead in the 4th Industrial Revolution, and have made hard statements about its future. The government recently destroyed the FUD by making statements after some meetings. The statements made were basically "We believe that Bitcoin is important for the 4th Industrial Revolution. We need to regulate, but not ban."
5.) Comparing Korea to China is crazy. Korea is extremely democratic and willing to adopt new technology. They already have an intense system of token and value exchange. Every purchase comes with reward points, and some of them you can even use as cash. People here don't like communistic control. They don't want to follow China's lead. They will not follow China, who has tight controls on internet technologies. Korea is not China.
6.) Korea is not Japan. But, in many ways, this is the opposite argument of the China one. Korea wants to compete with Japan in the global economy. Japan regulated Bitcoin, and embraced it. The Korean government even said things like, "Japan has already regulated the space. We need to act quickly." This means that Korea doesn't want Japan to be the only leader in the space. In my opinion, Korea will want to compete with Japan in this space, and they will embrace it even harder than Japan has. If you understand a little bit about Korean culture, you will know why Korea wants to compete so strongly with Japan.
P.S. Please, don't confuse these statements to mean Korea hates Japan or China. This is just me saying that Korea is not Japan or China.
P.P.S. This is just my analysis of what is going on here, based on my experience living and working in the tech field here. I am not saying any of this is absolutely true. I would like to hear what others think, especially if you live in Korea as well. Is my analysis solid based on your experience as well?
P.P.P.S. Merry Christmas! All cryptos are going up this Christmas morning in Korea! Hopefully, this is the first start of a bull run. Cheers!
submitted by givvy12 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Hello from S Korea

Guys I have a quick question. How come Bifinex's Bitcoin price is remaining around 14,000 for a week? Is American investors having vacation or what. Rumors in Korea says Whales are trying to make arbitrage trading through Korea and Japan. Just wanna hear your opinion.
submitted by feelenuff to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/CryptoCurrency] Predictions for 2018 and lessons learned from trends in 2017

The following post by arsonbunny is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been openly removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ CryptoCurrency/comments/7qk781
The original post's content was as follows:
I'd like to take the time to reflect on the crazy year that was 2017 for cryptocurrency investors, and weigh in on what we've learned over the past year, while also making a few predictions for the future.
One year feels like a decade in crypto, and so many various forces finally cumulated together in 2017 that we had an explosion of activity that left me feeling both exhausted and exhilarated. We saw LTC go on Coinbase, we saw an ICO rush with new issues like Bancor raising 150mil in 3 hours, we saw the absurdity that is cryptokitties crushing the ETH network, we saw Bitcoin Cash and the shitshow surrounding that, we saw Segwit and the long awaited Bitcoin futures. I will always remember where I was at the moment I watched Bitcoin pass $10,000 on GDAX. I will never forget the sweat as I watched the Gemini Auction for my BTC and then waiting for the payment to settle. And I will never forget the flurry of questions, advice seeking and inquiries from people in December as the media spotlight made cryptocurrencies a mainstream concern. We've come a long way, from the days of being considered oddball technogeeks to now being the vanguard of early adopters.

Some major trends in 2017 and lessons learned

  • The Mainstreaming of Cryptocurrencies: This was the year that the "normies" entered crypto in astounding numbers, especially later in the year and cumulating in December. From Ice Tea companies to my hairdresser, everyone wanted to be involved in crypto. New naive money will continue to pump into the market this year, and its important we welcome them while also keeping their expectations grounded in reality. Encouraging new investors with stories of how they can double their investment in a week is not a sustainable method of keeping them interested in crypto.
  • ICO Craze: For many 2017 was the year that the ICO. People made a ton of money by getting into ICOs early before a coin became hyped by the marketing efforts. Sites like ICOBench sprung up and provided people an easy way to find new ICOs to invest in, and those who got in could get a handsome profit by buying the coins for pennies then selling them for dimes a few months later at an exchange, with many ICOs offering pre-sale discounts for early registrations. I suspect that this trend will actually die out in 2018 as there seem to be way too many coins coming out now and they won't all be able to pump, we're already seeing ICOs recently getting dumped hard the moment they start trading on an exchange.
  • The rapid development of altcoin investment: At the beginning of the year the marketcap for altcoins as just $2 billion. By the end of 2017 it grew to over $370 billion. This was the year that investing in cryptos became about more than just Bitcoin. We saw an explosion of new promising altcoins, Binance launched in July, LTC was added to Coinbase and Ethereum really came into its own as a dominant force. I suspect that this focus on altcoins will continue as its now easier than ever to research and obtain them.
  • Resilience in the face of regulation: China banned initial coin offerings and bitcoin exchanges in the first weeks of September. The ban caused a precipitous drop in cryptocurrency flows worldwide and invoked panic within me, with Bitcoin going down to almost $3K. However we recovered surprisingly quick. This is why I wasn't too concerned with the recent news that Korea may crack down on exchanges. Cryptocurrencies are decentralized and distributed, and while government actions certainly can hurt the price in the short term, I think any attempts at increased crackdowns will result in a recovery within a few months. Crypto seems to be a lot more resilient than most people realize to laws trying to destroy it, so don't freak out when you hear a story about increased regulation in the Far East.
  • Institutional money coming in: We saw the speculation of an ETF not come to fruition, but in December the CME Group and CBOE started trading futures on Bitcoin. The lead up to this event and the subsequent decline and relative stabilization of Bitcoin will lead to a cascade of effects. We now have a genuine price discovery mechanism that will put downward pressure on BTC with its futures contracts. McAfees predictions of a million dollar BTC are not going to come to fruition now that you can short it.
  • Chase for the "next bitcoin": Lambo psychosis dominated and continued into the new year with nearly every coin in the top 100 showing a steep parabolic rise. This is actually something a lot of long term investors find deeply troubling, because now people are hungry for crazy x10 gains within a month and that is simply unsustainable.

Some predictions for the year 2018

Decline for Bitcoin
I have a long-standing emotional connection to Bitcoin and really do want it to succeed. But by now even the early adopters have come to accept how far away we are from the original vision of the currency. We are now seeing a decrease in adoption among ecommerce sites, which a sad state of affairs. I'm not so confident that Lighning will be enough at this point. Lightning likely wont be here for at least another 1-2 years and the problem will be user adoption. Segwit gave users a 40% discount on fees, and was a relatively simple upgrade, yet its 2018 and only 8% of transactions come from Segwit addresses. LN is way more difficult to implement, so don't expect it to be useful for at least a year after release. Core developers should have followed through with the New York Agreement and increased the blocksize to 2 MB. It's actually much more practical to scale BTC through miners than users, as most miners abide by the rules of a small set of mining pools and use the same software. Segwit2X was doomed to failure but it had 90% support among miners before the campaign against it started, and even after it had over 70% miner support. I think 70% miner support before a fork is vastly better for initiating a change than 8% user support.
Core team really needs to wake up right away and realize that the continual declines in market dominance are a reflection of Bitcoins failure to find utility, and that the first movers advantage and name brand will not last forever. Unless it solves the problem of insane transaction fees, ballooned mempool size, long transaction times and most of the accounts not even being able to afford to move the balance out I don't see BTC doing anything but declining in market dominance.
Ethereum will become an even more dominant force
I can see the long awaited flipening come in 2018. Ethereum already processes way more transactions than anything else, it already is basically THE platform for new coins and powers so much of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. The Constantinople fork and Casper Proof-of-Stake changes should take care of the TPS limitations for the next few years, and I expect to see an explosion of dApps in 2018. Ethereum has tons of developer support behind it and POS means people will want to hold it for the long term. Its already become my #1 core/safe-haven position and I think a 3-5K range in 2018 is completely reasonable.
The emergence of transactable business-oriented blockchains
The last few years were about theory and technological innovation, but I think 2018 will be the year that cryptocurrencies finally start to demonstrate value in solving business problems.
Ultimately a cryptocurrency is pointless if it doesn't solve some transactional problem or alleviate some inefficiency in the value-exchange process. There are several sectors/cases for business users that are ripe for blockchain technology: supply chain, settlement layers between intercurrency transactions, payment processing, offloading processing tasks onto blockchains, identity management...etc.
I expect that transactable coins that actually have functionality will be the big winners. ICX, WTC, VEN, NEO, XLM and others that target enterprise-oriented use cases will likely be the focus over the next year.
The rise of a DAG coin as a standard for transfers between exchanges, most likely Raiblocks (XRB)
Lets be perfectly honest: Right now the vast majority of transactions being conducted on the blockchain is simply moving cryptos around various exchanges. Its quite a nerve-wracking process, watching thousands of dollars sitting unconfirmed on the blockchain explorer for hours is not a pleasant experience. If you move your balances a lot you will end up losing substantial money to transfer fees. This is why I can see a light fast DAG becoming a standard for inter-exchange transfers of funds, specifically XRB after it gets listed on Binance. Being a DAG the process of onboarding isn't as simple as just adding another ERC20 coin, but once the Raiblocks team figures this out on Binance I suspect that adoption will follow quickly to other exchanges. The quick transactions speed and no cost will make it the ideal coin to exploit arbitrage between less liquid and more liquid markets.
The rise of "dividend" coins"
The next year should be one where the stretched valuations are questioned, and those coins that pay out a form of dividend and can thus be easily valued will become a safe harbor. NEO, EOS, ARK, VEN,OMG among others should gain favor. We actually saw NEO do particularly well in this recent downturn. I expect to see a lot more also following this dividend payment model.
**The move away ...
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

Is it possible to arbitrage the price difference between Bitstamp and Bithumb?

So for some time, BTC has been quite more expensive in Bithumb (South Korea) than in other exchanges, like Kraken, Bitstamp, GDAX, etc.
Let's say you are able to open a South Korean bank account (probably by having to live there, as I heard they don't open accounts to non residents). So you'd be able to send BTC to Bithumb and sell them there for won. Then, you transfer them (using something like Transferwise to save on currency exchange fees) to a "Western" exchange. You buy BTC there for a quite lower price (the difference is like 20% now). Then you withdraw them directly to Bithumb. Rinse and repeat.
Why isn't this being done, do South Korean banks close your account if they see you are involved with bitcoin trading (arbitrage actually)? I heard of many banks closing accounts if they see you doing BTC related stuff, but maybe that's not the case in South Korea.
submitted by Yyk3 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

List of Today's and Tomorrow's Upcoming Events

I am a bot and my goal is to bring you upcoming events/announcements every day. If you want improvements to this post, please mention houseme in the comments. We will make improvements based on your feedback.
 
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NEXT DAY UPCOMING EVENTS

 
Ripple (XRP) Yahoo Finance Summit
February 7, 2018
UTC
ICO/Pre-Sale
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NEO (NEO) Bitmex's NEO Giveaway
February 7, 2018
UTC
General
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XTRABYTES (XBY) Monthly 777 with Borzalom
February 7, 2018
UTC
General
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Revain (R) Presentation to Industry Experts
February 7, 2018
UTC
General
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IoT Chain (ITC) ITC TestNet Release
February 7, 2018
UTC
General
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WaBi (WABI) Blockchain in Supply Chain, Transport & Logistics in Asia, Hong Kong
February 7, 2018
UTC
Blockchain
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Decision Token (HST) Pausefest Conference
February 7, 2018
UTC
Conference
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Cofound.it (CFI) AMA Session with Developers
February 7, 2018
UTC
General
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Cofound.it (CFI) Q&A
February 7, 2018
UTC
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Change (CAG) Upcoming Partnerships
February 7, 2018
UTC
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BLUE ($BLUE) Major Update
February 7, 2018 12:00 AM - 11:59 PM
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Lykke (LKK) New Fees & Limits Policy
February 7, 2018
UTC
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MyWish (WISH) The First ICO on MyWish Crowdsale Platform
February 7, 2018
UTC
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MyWish (WISH) First ICO Using WISH
February 7, 2018
UTC
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INS Ecosystem (INS) - End of Trading Contest on OKEx
February 7, 2018 12:00 AM - 11:55 PM
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Red Pulse ($RPX) Blockchain 3.0 Conference
February 8, 2018 12:00 AM - 11:59 PM
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FlutterCoin (FLT) Hard Fork
February 7, 2018 8:00 PM - 11:59 PM
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MedicalChain (MEDTOKEN) - Blockchain & Bitcoin Conference Gibraltar
February 8, 2018 12:00 AM - 11:55 PM
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EOS (EOS) NY Meetup
February 8, 2018
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RaiBlocks (XRB) Raiblocks Creator Q&A
February 8, 2018
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Ark (ARK) ARK Long Beach Meetup, USA
February 8, 2018
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FunFair (FUN) Listing on COBINHOOD
February 8, 2018
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FunFair (FUN) Listing On Cobinhood
February 8, 2018
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Cobinhood ($COB) To List BitDegree and 5 Others
February 8, 2018 12:00 AM - 11:59 PM
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Gnosis (GNO) Listing on COBINHOOD
February 8, 2018
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Enjin Coin (ENJ) Listing on COBINHOOD
February 8, 2018
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Enjin Coin (ENJ) ENJ Cobinhood Listing
February 8, 2018
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Ambrosus (AMB) Updated Roadmap
February 8, 2018
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Gifto (GTO) Listing on Coinnest
February 8, 2018
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Flixxo (FLIXX) Ask Me Anything On Reddit
February 8, 2018
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Flixxo (FLIXX) Flixxo Community AMA
February 8, 2018
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BLUE (BLUE) Wallet Update
February 8, 2018
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Dovu (DOVU) Gibraltar Conference
February 8, 2018
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Dovu (DOVU) Mobility Pioneers
February 8, 2018
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Blackmoon (BMC) Listing on QRYPTOS
February 8, 2018
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ArbitrageCT (ARCT) HitBTC Listing
February 8, 2018
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submitted by cryptocalbot to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Beginner's Guide to Exchanges - Part 2

Beginner’s Guide to Exchanges – Part 2

A little late, but as promised here is Part 2 of the Beginner’s Guide to Exchanges. I would like to sincerely thank everyone for their support and feedback in making these.
Link to Part 1
This time I also made a Google Docs survey in the hopes of sharing the results with the community. I thought we could share what we use as a whole and why redditors choose the exchanges they do. For skeptics (as you all should be), I assure you that I am not collecting personal information. This is for recreation and if you are still wary, then by all means abstain!
Link to Survey
In Part 3 I will be wrapping up this series by covering decentralized, semi-decentralized, and derivative exchanges. Here it goes!

00 – Concepts and Definitions (Continued)

04 – Fiat Exchanges – Canada

QuadrigaCX

Country Linked Bank Transfer Wire Transfer Paypal Credit/Debit Crypto Transfer
CAD Deposit 1%/ Withdraw Free Free Free (Withdraw Only) 1% (Withdraw Only) Free
USD - Free Free (Withdraw Only) - Free
Exchange Type Maker Taker
Fiat .5% .5%
BTC/ETH .2% .2%
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator or Email 2FA Available
Wallet Security Undisclosed amount of funds in cold storage
Web Security 3rd Party Security provided by CloudFlare
Bug Bounty Expired $50 bounties
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info Credit Score Limits
Basic Account X X Digital only, Limits Vary
Verified Account X X X X X X Limits Vary

05 – Fiat Exchanges – Europe

CEX.IO

Country Credit/Debit Bank Transfer Crypto Transfer
Europe 3.5%+ €0.24 Deposit €0 / Withdraw €25 (SEPA €10) Free
Russia 5% + ₽ 15.57 - -
UK 3.5%+ £0.20 Deposit £0 / Withdraw £20 (SEPA Free
US 3.5%+ $0.25 Deposit $0 / Withdraw $50 Deposit $0 / Withdraw 1%
Exchange Type Maker Taker
All Currencies 0% .20%
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator Available
Wallet Security Undisclosed amount of funds in cold storage
Credit Card Data Overseen by 3rd Party Kyte Consultants
Web Security SSL Certificates and Encrypted Personal Data
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address ID + Photo Bank Info KYC Limits
Basic Account X X X Digital only
Verified Account X X X X X X $10,000 Daily/$100,000 Monthly

BTC-E / XBTC-E

Country Credit/Debit Bank Transfer Paypal
Europe - SEPA - Deposit .5% / Withdraw 1% (€100 min) -
Russia 6% 6% -
US 7% Deposit .5% ($20 min) / Withdraw 1% ($100 min) 7%
Exchange Type Maker Taker
All Currencies .20% .20%
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator Available
Password Expiration Must be changed every 6 months
DDoS Protection 3rd Party Security Services provided by CloudFlare
Bug Bounty Yes at xBTCe
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info KYC Limits
Verified User X X X X X No Stated Limits

Liqui.io

Exchange Type Maker Taker
All Digital Currencies 0.1% .25%
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator Available
Bug Bounty Reported bounty posted on HackerOne (unconfirmed)

06 – Fiat Exchanges – South Korea

안녕하세요 여러분! 혹시 우리 한국인 친구 이 보고서를 한국어로 읽고 싶어한다면 알려주세요. 관심이 많이 있다면 간단한 한국어 보고서도 만들 수 있습니다. This year, ETH has taken off like a rocket in the Land of the Morning Calm. With a population of just 50 million, South Koreans account for almost 30% of daily ETH trade volume. Even more surprising is that currently the daily volume of ETH is about 5 times higher than that of Bitcoin on Korean exchanges. Since demand is high, ETH is trading at a premium on Korean exchanges. Some users have been talking about capitalizing off this imbalance by trading on arbitrage between exchanges. For those who have no connection to Korea and hope to do so, I have bad news – all Korean exchanges require a National ID number and access to a Korean bank account. This makes Korean exchanges virtually closed to Korean nationals and those with long-term visas. Sorry everyone.

Bithumb

Coinone

Korbit

07 – Fiat Exchanges – China

With a great deal of anticipation, major Chinese exchanges started trading ETH this summer. Since these exchanges deal huge volumes of Bitcoin already, naturally it was expected that they invest heavily into ETH as well. So far this hasn’t quite lived up to the hype with many exchanges still favoring Bitcoin, Litecoin, Altcoins, and even Ethereum Classic (Gulp). Three of these exchanges underwent inspections by the Peoples Bank of China earlier this year and will be working closely with the government to ease fears of money laundering and market manipulation. There are a lot of Chinese sites, and since my Chinese is non-existent this list is basically just for name recognition. In many ways these sites are very similar in regards to security, verification, and fees compared to their western counterparts; just marketed at a different audience and currency. If users are seriously interested in these exchanges and making reviews, please contribute or ask!

OK Coin

Huobi

CH-BTC

Yunbi

08 – Coinswaps & Cryto-converters

ShapeShift

Changelly

submitted by poop_dragon to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Make money with automatic Bitcoin arbitrage trading - 100% ... Download Free Bitcoin Arbitrage Software Full Automated ... It is Not Possible to Arbitrage South Korea’s Cryptocurrency Premiums INFINITE BITCOIN ARBITRAGE TRADING earns 1% to 3% Daily Bitcoin 비트코인 차익 거래 Selling Arbitrage in Korea Bithumb Korbit OK Coin

We start by looking separately at the arbitrage index within each of the major regions, where bitcoin trading is prevalent and we have more than one exchange (i.e., Europe, Korea, Japan, and the US). For each region, we have at least three exchanges; the only exception is Korea, where we only have two exchanges, Bithumb and Korbit. Investigating the Great Korean Bitcoin Arbitrage Opportunity For over a month now, Korean Bitcoin exchanges have seen BTC prices that are consistently higher than international exchanges Bitfinex Korbit and Bithumb, the two most popular cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea, have been trading with significant premiums compared to the west for some time.It is only after yesterday’s “old news” presented as new FUD that a lot of people got interested. If you have missed the news, yesterday the information started going around that South Korea is shutting down crypto exchanges. Arbitrage trading gains the advantage by acquiring inequalities in prices between markets. Local traders from South Korea have turned out to pay more for bitcoin as USD. United States, Europe, and other parts of Asia are probably the next locations. Bitcoin trading crypto education Crypto trading trading. 103. Bitcoin traders in Korea were paying close to 50% markup for bitcoin on local exchanges at its peak. This resulted in a high volume of trading in South Korea. The difference was so high that at one point, CoinMarketCap removed South Korean exchanges from its market cap index.

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Make money with automatic Bitcoin arbitrage trading - 100% ...

Get your FREE BITCOIN ARBITRAGE ENGINE here: https://tinyurl.com/INFkee96 Transfer your Bitcoins to Infinite wallet and go to STAKING to start Auto ARBITRAGE TRADING ... *global preparation *level up security *korea arbitrage op *Wages of Fear *Financial Freedom ... Bitcoin Arbitrage Bot 2017 ... Hong Kong Arbitrage Trading Seminar 07.12.16 - Duration: ... Thank you for watching the video on my Dinheiro Online channel. Like, subscribe to the channel, click on the bell and wait for a new video. To install the so... Click here and get it: https://bit.ly/2FHK6sB ----- Bitcoin arbitrage is the process of buying bitcoins on one exchange and selling them at another, where ... How I Made $3400 Profit In 3 Hours Almost Risk Free (Crypto Arbitrage Bitcoin Trading) - Duration: 12:45. King Money Mastery - Crypto Trading And Investments 14,861 views 12:45

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